Politics & Sports
Gilbert S.C. Keith-Agaran | Photos courtesy Gil Keith-Agaran
People run for office for many reasons. Granted, I was selected before being elected (appointed to both the State House and the State Senate) so I’m no expert on the motivations of people who always wanted a career in politics.
Competition in local races is always a good thing in my mind. But over the years, people who pull papers to run for office last minute perplexed me. For folks who file at the deadline, I wonder whether they realize how very compressed it is now between the filing deadline in June and the August primary election. Perhaps when our primary was in September, you had a fighting chance against a better-known opponent or even an incumbent. But the federal law making sure deployed soldiers could participate in elections by mail also required states to move their primaries far enough away from the November general election so ballots could reach overseas on time. Moreover, Hawai‘i now conducts its elections by mail and ballots arrive at voter’s homes as early as mid-July. My mother, sister, and I received our ballots and sent them back within a few days of receipt—well before August 10 (and Hawai‘i law only allows counting ballots received by elections officials by Election Day and NOT just post-marked by that day).
For new candidates, without much name recognition in the community (or who may think they’re well-known in certain circles), it may surprise them how much work is required to make an impression on prospective voters. Wearing down shoe leather used to be a useful and cheap tactic—you met your voters by knocking on doors and talking to them in person. Basic, old-fashioned retail leg work. I used to think anyone looking to knock off an incumbent should just start walking while the legislator or councilmember was busy at being an elected official, preoccupied with committees, bill debates, and floor votes. Hitting every home three or four times before the election showed you had energy and really wanted to earn people’s support.
Even sign waving isn’t as big as the old days. Candidates simply don’t value this cheap tool for getting your name out anymore.
A lot of organizations (unions, businesses, community, and other interest groups) start their endorsement process well before June. If you don’t believe in gathering support from organizations interested in politics or public policy, you better have a huge family or wide circle of friends eligible to vote for you.
The pandemic accelerated the trend of local candidates turning more to things that cost money: mailers, mainstream media (radio and even cable tv, or when we had a Maui newspaper, the Maui News) and targeted social media platforms and tech (those annoying text messages). So you either raise cash or you spend your own.
Reality means unless your incumbent opponent did something stupid or illegal (and your voters know about it or it draws a lot of people to same day register and vote), starting in June is a non-starter if your contest gets decided in an August partisan primary. Even if you are operating on a general election calendar, you still have to make up a lot of ground against someone who sounds familiar to consistent voters. And it’s the folks who vote election after election who you need to reach.
Nationally, we were facing the prospects of a rematch between two old white men: incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. But with their frontrunner dropping out, Vice President Kamala Harris will lead the Democrats. If elected, Harris will be the first woman, first black woman, and first South Asian to serve in that office. With a fifty-nine-year-old woman facing off against a seventy-eight-year-old man, the dynamics have shifted in the race for the White House.
As Hawai‘i is considered a deep blue state, we won’t get a deluge of political ads blanketing States more crucial in getting a majority of the electoral college: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and perhaps Georgia.
It’s also quiet locally. Maui County doesn’t appear to have many competitive races—perhaps one or two of the County Council races and maybe a legislative race. Unless the GOP Presidential candidate surprises in the islands and carries a wave of Republicans on his coattails, Maui voters likely will return most of our current legislators to the State Capitol. From a distance, I don’t see challengers with a plan to win.
For most candidates who have no real plan, you’re kinda like my baseball team.
You don’t field a team just to participate.
You don’t put Charlie Brown on the mound with a mediocre fastball and Lucy in centerfield.
The idea is to win.
But for me and my right-thinking kin, it’s early August and the Giants are done.
Put a fork in ‘em.
When is the first Bengals pre-season game?
Is there an election this year?
Who invented liquid soap and why?
IMHO, San Francisco should have been seller at the trade deadline. Instead, a sweep of the lowly Rockies moved the Giants closer to the last Wild Card, so they just did a salary dump that can’t please either sell or buy proponents. They shipped off their heralded free agent slugger and designated hitter Jorge Soler ($10M) and relief pitcher Luke Jackson ($6.5M) back to Atlanta where they were solid contributors on a World Series team. Soler was hitting leadoff because he’s been useless with runners in scoring position—with his salary dumped out to Atlanta he’ll suddenly start collecting RBIs—and Jackson will find his control and stop giving up leads. SF General Manager Farhan Zaidi also sent Alex Cobb ($10M), finally ready after rehab, to contender Cleveland (nice to give a solid Giant an opportunity to make the post-season).
Baseball may not be the national pastime of small kids time but it remains a game that breaks your heart (sports generally operate that way because every team except one finishes without a title).
Every baseball season starts with promise (okay San Francisco is in the same division as the hated Dodgers so you realistically start off thinking about getting to the post-season as one of the three wild card teams). And it’s a long season with 162 games over the course of six months.
In October, the three division winners and the three non-division winners with the best records from both the National League and the American League enter the playoffs. So, twelve of the thirty major league teams move forward beyond the regular season.
The third wild card team in each league was intended to keep more teams in contention longer. But shouldn’t be surprising to a Bay Area fan that the additional spot is just a mirage. Since winning three World Series in five years, we’ve wilted in the summers (I gotta admit in retrospect winning 107 games in 2021 was an anomaly and not the start of another dynastic run).
But this off-season, Farhan went out and finally brought home some free agent signings (of course, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto teased the Bay Area before signing as expected with the boys in blue, and the front office didn’t bother recruiting the other big Japanese prospect, Cubs signee Shota Imanaga).
We know, however, it’s not enough to win a prop bet on FanDuel or BetMGM or DraftKings (not available in Hawai‘i anyway you wascawwy wabbits). You actually have to play the games.
Sure, 2023 Cy Young winner Blake Snell ($23.5M) finally looks worth the free-agent contract after a very disappointing first half, and 2021 Cy Young winner Robbie Ray ($23M) seems sharp and recovered from Tommy John surgery. On paper, along with Ace Logan Webb ($8M) (although lately he seems to have tired arm symptoms) and two 22-year-olds—Kyle Harrison ($743,750) and Hayden Birdsong—that’s not a bad rotation. Converted fireballer reliever Jordan Hicks ($6.5M) has shown flashes of brilliance as a starter but will move back to late-inning relief.
But we’re NOT a playoff team even with the expanded playoff spots available.
The bullpen—strong at times— has made too many appearances and it’s begun to show. Camilo Doval ($770K) has not been a reliable Closer (he’s been more scary to Giants fans than opposing batters in the ninth inning), and the setup/stretch men have been spotty or overused (that’s you Erik Miller ($740K), Sean Hjelle ($743,750), Randy Rodriguez, Taylor Rogers ($12M), Tyler Rogers ($3.2M)). Ryan Walker ($747.5K) has been solid.
Giants Offense has been an oxymoron.
Four runs a game are hard to come by which means the hurlers better be throwing near shutouts in every game.
At the hot corner, Matt Chapman ($16,666,666) was a good pick-up for his gold glove (while he is one of the SF home run leaders, his batting average is lousy).
While second-year man Patrick Bailey ($747.5K) and veteran Curt Casali ($1M) have been good behind the plate (Tom Murphy is on IL), Mike Yastrzemski ($7.9M), Thairo Estrada ($4.7M), LaMonte Wade, Jr. ($3.5M), Wilmer Flores ($6.5M), and Michael Conforto ($18M) have been inconsistent or injured (the longest-tenured Giant and MLBPA rep. OF Austin Slater and stabilizing SS Nick Ahmed earned a 40-man roster spot clearing trade or designation for assignment respectively). Korean phenom CF Jung Hoo Lee ($7,833,333) is out for the season after hitting the centerfield wall trying to make a play (his bobblehead giveaway game happened a few days before the July 30 trade deadline).
The young guys have been pleasant surprises so maybe we build on Heliot Ramos ($572,832), Tyler Fitzgerald ($638,240), and Brett Wisely ($560,898). Bring up Marco Luciano, David Villar and Luis Matos.
If the Giants miss the playoffs, Greg Johnson should move on from Farhan, too.
Of course, the Giants could prove me wrong. I really hope so.
They could go on a historic run over the last two months of the season.
SF could bring home another World Series title.
If you think that could happen, let me also tell you as a Cincinnati Bengals fan, this is our year.
Joe Burrow is back stronger with a new doo. Tee Higgens signed his franchise tag and Ja’Marr Chase is ready to go, with maybe an improved WR room. Logan Wilson and the D have something to prove after being frustratingly porous last season.
We’re no doubt Sin City bound on February 9, 2025, as AFC champions.
And the national election in November? Be there. It will be wild.
Gilbert S.C. Keith-Agaran practices law in Wailuku. He was a Pā‘ia Yankee but has been a San Francisco Giants partisan surrounded by Dodgers fans his entire life.