Swingers
Gilbert S.C. Keith-Agaran | Photos: Gilbert Keith-Agaran
The November General Election locally is not extremely exciting. If you drive past Ka‘ahumanu Shopping Center on a random afternoon, you may see some sign waivers for either the Kamala Harris-Tim Walz (Democrat) or the Donald Trump-J.D. Vance (Republican) tickets. You do not see much activity for other races—federal congressional, state legislative offices, or county contests.

Hawai‘i is heavily assumed to remain in the Democratic column for the Harris-Walz team. With the country split between blue (Democratic) and red (Republican) states, the results in only a couple of swing/purple states will determine the Presidential election. Ironically, when Hawai‘i and Alaska were admitted to the Union in 1959, the 50th State was expected to be reliably Republican while the 49th balanced off as Democratic. Alaska has since become a mainstay of the GOP in Presidential elections while Hawai‘i has turned Democrat (Hawai‘i did vote for Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984; Hilary Clinton’s Hawai‘i victory over Donald Trump in 2016—62% to 30%—was her largest margin in that election).
Most of the remaining legislative races in Maui County are expected to go the way of the incumbents (powerful House Finance Committee chair Kyle Yamashita Upcountry, possible House Water Land chair Mahina Poepoe in the canoe district, Rep. Terez Amato in South Maui, and Rep. Elle Cochran in West Maui/Waihe‘e; Senate Economic Development chair Lynn DeCoite from the canoe district and Senate Government Operations chair Angus McKelvey from South & West Maui). I would not expect to see them knocking on your door (and in Central Maui, we already cast our ballots for incumbents Sen. Troy Hashimoto, Rep. Tyson Miyake, and House Education chair Justin Woodson in the August Primary).
As Maui County begins the rebuilding phase for upcountry and Lahaina in the wake of the August 2023 fires and negotiations for control of water resources, in the closely divided County Council, one seat change may trigger rearranging control of the County legislative body. The Council race being watched is the South Maui seat currently held by Tom Cook who is challenged by former councilmember Kelly Takaya King. The other incumbents are expected to return with a close contest possible in the rematch between Nohe U‘u-Hodgins and Nara Boone for Pā‘ia – Ha‘ikū. Council Chair Alice Lee received a scare in 2022 but faces self-styled environmental attorney James “Nahele” Forrest for Wailuku; Tasha Kama and Carol Lee Kamekona vie for the Kahului seat; Tamara Paltin has visitor activity business owner Lorien “Lolo” Acquintas for West Maui; Keani Rawlins-Fernandez is again challenged by John “All Can Vote for” Pele for Molokai, and Yuki Lei Sugimura meets Jocelyn Cruz, a farm project manager, for the Upcountry seat. Hāna councilmember Shane Sinenci and Lāna‘i member Gabe Johnson face blank ballots in their races. While the Council candidates must claim a residence in a particular district, all voters in the County can cast ballots for every Council race.

Voters locally will also help select the Molokai (incumbent Luana Alapa or R. Kunani Nihipali), Kaua‘i (incumbent Dan Ahuna or Laura Lindsey), and At-Large (former trustee Lei Ahu-Isa or incumbent Keli‘i Akina) trustees for the Office of Hawaiian Affairs.
Democrat Mazie Hirono is expected to easily win a third six-year term in the U.S. Senate while first-year Congresswoman Jill Tokuda is expected to easily earn a second two-year term; U.S. Rep. Ed Case probably also wins another term for his O‘ahu seat.
Unless you tune into some national or cable news or sports event (NFL, NCAA football, MLB playoffs), local people will not see the Presidential ads crowding the airwaves in the battleground states. The national election is a misnomer—as most folks know, the United States does not directly elect its President and Vice-President. Instead, under the U.S. Constitution, the person elected President must win a majority of the votes (270 votes) in the 538-member Electoral College (each U.S. State gets the number of electoral votes that it has in the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives; the 1961 23rd amendment to the Constitution allocated three votes to the District of Columbia; consequently, Hawai‘i has four electoral votes from its two U.S. Senators and two U.S. Representatives). The members of the Electoral College are designated by their respective states. Except for Nebraska and Maine who split their votes along Congressional districts, most States allocate all their presidential electors to the candidate who wins their state.
Dividing the country into expected Democratic (Blue) states and Republican (Red) states, Harris-Walz is expected to carry 21 (including four leaning blue) states, or 225 electoral votes. Trump-Vance is holding 23 (with four leaning red) states, or 219 votes. The remaining seven states and one Nebraska congressional district will decide the election: Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nebraska (1), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19) and Wisconsin (10).
The Democrats can win the White House by holding Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and capturing at least one other battleground state, or one Nebraska vote. Losing Pennsylvania makes the road more difficult as at least two other states will need to turn blue to make up the Quaker state’s nineteen votes. The Republican ticket would need some combination of fifty-one votes from the ninety-four available uncommitted electoral votes.

The election is expected to be remarkably close and results announced on the evening of Nov. 5 will not be final in many states. Unlike Haw
ai‘i which requires all ballots to be received by the close of Voter Service Centers on Election Day, other states may continue to accept postmarked ballots arriving after Nov. 5. Pennsylvania also does not allow the validation process for ballots until Election Day even for absentee ballots received earlier, so its final tally, like in 2020, may not be completed for several days. Certain states also have different laws governing when results trigger re-counts which may also delay final results. Because Hawai‘i allows absentee ballots to be processed as they are received by the Counties, the votes will be ready for counting on Election Day after the last vote is cast at a Voter Service Center and polling closes.
The Hawai‘i Presidential ballot will include the nominees from four other political parties, as well as the Democrats and Republicans (Greens Jill Stein and Rudolph Ware, Libertarians Chase Oliver and Mike Ter Maat, Solidarity Party Peter Sonski and Lauren Onak, and Party for Socialism and Liberation Claudia De La Cruz and Karina Garcia).
I am not a betting man but I expect the Democrats to carry the blue wall (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) and at least one of the Sunbelt states to hold onto the White House. I expect the Democrats to retake a majority in the House of Representatives but lose control of the U.S. Senate. I also expect a lot of lawyers will be busy throughout the weeks leading up to November 5 and to the Congressional certification session in January. Whether there will be a peaceful transition of power or even a reduction of heated rhetoric is anyone’s guess. But then again, I made a futures wager on the Cincinnati Bengals winning both the AFC Championship and the Super Bowl title this year. At this writing, the Bengals are 2–4.
Gilbert S.C. Keith-Agaran was an alternate Hawaii delegate to the 2008 Democratic Party Convention in Denver, Colorado. A former Hawaii state legislator, he practices law in Wailuku.